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Price Gains Keep Slowing; Expected to Halve by 2014

Home prices continued to rise in March, but at a markedly slower pace compared to February, CoreLogic reported in its latest Home Price Index. According to the company, prices were up 11.1 percent nationally year-over-year in March, with growth expected to slow to an annual rate of 6.7 percent by the same time in 2015. Both figures include distressed sales.

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Homebuyers Prefer New Homes (But Not New Prices)

In a survey of more than 2,000 adults, Trulia found an estimated 41 percent “would strongly or somewhat prefer” to buy a new single-family home over an existing one, assuming the prices were equal. Just more than one in five respondents—21 percent—said they would prefer an existing home, while 38 percent expressed no preference. Of course, while the survey set prices on a level field to gauge interest, that’s very rarely the case.

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Best Housing Deals Now in the Mid-Tier Market

As home price growth continues to moderate to a more sustainable pace, real estate data provider Clear Capital sees another promising trend forming: The mid-tier housing sector now has the best deals for buyers, hopefully drawing more interest to the market’s largest segment. Dr. Alex Villacorta, VP and chief economist for Clear Capital, says the shift reflects how market drivers have had an impact on each tier of housing.

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Is Credit Really Loosening? Maybe Not

In a blog post published late last week, Urban Institute’s researchers assert, “A market composition change—not lower lending standards—explains the decrease in average credit scores for conventional and FHA [Federal Housing Administration] mortgages. “Despite rising home prices and gradual housing recovery, the mortgage lending rules have remained tight, inhibiting housing demand and economic growth,” they continue.

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Negative Equity Rate Down to One in 10

In its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, Black Knight Financial Services found one in 10 Americans are underwater on their home loans, down from one in three as recently as 2010. "Two years of relatively consecutive home price increases and a general decline in the number of distressed loans have contributed to a decreasing number of underwater borrowers," said Kostya Gradushy, Black Knight's manager of Loan Data and Customer Analytics.

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Brakes Expected to Keep Pumping on Price Gains

After nearly two years of frenzied price appreciation, home price gains are expected to drop off, according to the latest report from Veros Real Estate Solutions, a provider of enterprise risk management, collateral valuation, and predictive analytics. However, Veros does not cast a negative outlook for the market. Rather, the firm anticipates a stable market with slow price appreciation. “The wave of appreciation may have crested, but it has been an impressive recovery in many respects,” said Eric Fox, VP of statistical an economic modeling at Veros.

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Report: Buying Trumps Renting in Half the Country

A recent break-even horizon analysis by Zillow finds buying a home remains a better longer-term financial decision than renting in half of U.S. metros. "Rents keep rising, and mortgage interest rates remain very low, which is helping to skew the rent vs. buy decision toward buying for those who can afford it," said Zillow chief economist Dr. Stan Humphries.

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First-Quarter Refinance Stats Point to Equity Build-Up

According to Freddie Mac's latest report, 39 percent of refinancers last quarter chose to shorten their term, up slightly over the prior quarter and the highest share since 1992. Meanwhile, the share of borrowers extracting home equity stayed relatively low. Together, the two stats suggest borrowers are seeking to strengthen their own equity positions as home values continue to rise, the company says.

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Fed to Cut Monthly Asset Purchases to $45B

Federal Reserve leaders concluded their April meeting on Wednesday, revealing they have again voted to scale back the Fed's monthly asset purchases. Beginning in May, the committee will add only $20 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month rather than the previous pace of $25 billion. Additionally, longer-term Treasury securities will be scaled back to $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion.

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Report: Loan Risk Remains High; QM Having ‘No Discernible Impact’

The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) International Center on Housing Risk released this week its latest National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), a measure of likely loan default rates in the event of another economic crisis. For its March data, the group calculated that under stress, 11.5 percent of recent home purchase mortgages would default, just down from 11.6 percent in February.

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