Volumes

“We forecast single-family purchase mortgage originations to be $1.32 trillion in 2023 and $1.41 trillion in 2024, representing downward revisions of $41 billion and $60 billion, respectively, relative to last month’s forecast,” the ESR said.

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Even as mortgage rates fall, continued inventory concerns and affordability issues are keeping many on the sidelines as the summer buying season gets underway.

Based on the current rate of sales, May’s inventory of unsold existing homes grew 3.8% from April to just over 1 million units, equivalent to three months of supply.

While mortgage rates fell for a third consecutive week, limited supply and continued affordability issues are handcuffing prospective buyers, as overall mortgage activity rose just 0.5% over last week’s total.

“U.S. housing starts in May came in above consensus expectations at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million, which is 21.7% above the revised April estimate of 1.34 million and 5.7% above the May 2022 rate of 1.54 million,” said First American Economist Ksenia Potapov.

Amid larger macroeconomic uncertainties, the total homeownership rate can be attributed to the strong growth in the below-median income homeownership rate, which has sharply increased since 2016.

For the first time in nearly 11 months, solid demand, a lack of existing inventory, and an improvement in supply chain efficiency have all contributed to an uptick in home builder confidence nationwide.

Freddie Mac reports that anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes forced the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage downward yet again, leading to a slight rise in overall application activity.

If you are looking for a home for summers or a permanent residence, now may be the time to get into the market, as the number of listings on lakes has jumped dramatically this year.