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Low Inventory Hinders High Home Demand

The Demand index, based on Redfin customer requests for home tours and writing offers, shows that buyers requesting tours were down 8.2 percent while buyers requesting writing offers were down 7.7 percent month-over-month. Redfin blames the slight reduction in demand on the small inventory.

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Home Prices Could Level Off Under Higher Interest Rates

Major metros could be especially vulnerable to rising interest rates, according to a new study by Pro Teck. San Francisco could see a 10 percent drop in home prices if rate rises more aggressively than predicted. Meanwhile, inventory in top-selling metros remains tight.

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The FHA Can Increase Credit Access

According to Urban Institute, the FHA has more power to increase credit access. The GSEs do risk-based pricing through their loan-level pricing adjustments. However, the FHA does not do risk-based pricing, and so it has insured borrowers and so it has insured borrowers with less-than-pristine credit. Charging the same fee for those with good credit as those with bad credit has limited credit availability.

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Homeownership Rates Linked to Decrease in GDP

Recent study shows that decrease in homeownership is most severe among 25 to 29-year-old age groups, African Americans, and one-person households. Reasons cited include tightening credit requirements, rising student debt, and lack of ability to save for down payment. Experts say that dip in homeownership has contributed to dip in national GDP.

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Lender Optimism High, Profits Low

Fannie Mae’s survey respondents point to competition from other lenders and market trend changes, such as a shift from refinance to purchases, as top reasons for low profit margins. However, respondents point to government regulatory compliance, a historically top reason for lenders’ decreased profit outlooks, as a lesser reason.

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Affordability, Buying Power Drop as Prices Rise

With real house prices on the rise and inventory low, spring is poised to be a seller’s market, according to First American. Real home prices rose more than 8 percent over the year, with Jacksonville, Florida, seeing the most growth annually. According to First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming, “on a year-over-year basis, real house prices increase in all the metropolitan areas tracked . . .”

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The Road Ahead

With an uncertain regulatory environment, new data requirements, and promising technological opportunities all intersecting, mortgage originators face a winding road as they navigate through 2017.

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